When will BJP get majority in Rajya Sabha

This is a very hot topic. When will Rajya Sabha function smoothly? When will ruling party get majority? Here is the answer.

Rajya Sabha – The Basics

• It is also called the Upper House of the Parliament of India.

• It has 250 members, 12 of whom are nominated by the President of India for their contributions to art, literature, science, and social services.

• The tenure of each member is 6 years

• 238 members are elected by state legislators from state assemblies.  

Party wise members (as on Feb 2015)

1. Congress – 67
2. BJP – 46
3. SP – 15
4. JD (U) – 12
5. AIADMK – 11
6. Trinamool – 11
7. BSP – 10
8. CPI(M) – 9
9. BJD – 7
10. TDP – 6
11. NCP – 6
12. DMK – 4
13. Others – 41

Ruling Party strength – Today, the strength of NDA is around 60 (including allies). To get simple majority, they need to have atleast 123 members. Where, when and how to get these numbers?

In the year 2015 – Totally 10 seats are coming up for election. (Even if BJP+ wins all the seats, they can’t get majority)

In the year 2016 – Totally 75 seats are coming up for election. (Many of these seats are already held by BJP. So, even if they win majority of these seats, they will not make it to 123 members). At the most, BJP+ will be the single largest party in Rajya Sabha by the end of 2016

In the year 2017 – Only 10 seats are coming up for election.

In the year 2018 – totally 68 seats are coming up for election. If BJP wins in assembly election of West Bengal and UP, they may get simple majority or with the allies they may make it.

So, friends, we can’t expect any major improvement in the way Rajya Sabha is functioning in the near future. Major legislations can’t (or should not) be taken through Ordinance route. Even if ordinance is passed, it won’t get passed in Rajya Sabha. There is no precedent of calling Joint sitting of Parliament at frequent intervals.

What will happen after 2019 Lok Sabha Election? Assume BJP+ wins more seats in UP, West Bengal, Assam assembly elections, they will have majority in Rajya Sabha by 2019. If UPA wins 2019 elections, they will not have majority in Rajya Sabha. So, BJP+ will be in the opposition there and may behave the same way UPA+ is behaving now! It’s only if BJP+ wins 2019 Lok Sabha elections, this country will see a party having majority in both Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha!

Happy Going India. 

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• How much does one day of a Parliament session cost?
• How Ordinance is different from Bills

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